Air passengers face worse turbulence and longer flights due to climate change, study warns

Passengers will experience more turbulence on flights by the middle of the century due to climate change, a scientist has warned.

Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading, found in his latest research that aeroplanes are already beginning to experience more turbulence and this will increase with climate change.

The research shows that clean-air turbulence has increased in several regions across the world and it is costing airlines “hundreds of millions a year”.

Clear-air turbulence can appear unexpectedly and in extreme cases damage aircraft and injure passengers.

Professor Williams found there will be more bumpier transatlantic flights and clear air turbulence could triple by the end of the century.

He wrote that “flight paths may need to become more convoluted to avoid patches of turbulence that are stronger and more frequent” which will lead to journey times lengthening and fuel consumption and emissions increasing.

He added that clear-air turbulence is “especially difficult to avoid because it cannot be seen by pilots or detected by satellites or on-board radar”.

Scientists said clear-air turbulence is already costing airlines up to £483 million in America alone and more investment will be needed to forecast and detect the invisible phenomenon.

One of the world’s busiest routes in the North Atlantic has seen its total annual duration of severe turbulence jump by 55% from 17.7 hours in 1979 to 27.4 hours in 2020.

Moderate turbulence increased by 37% from 70.0 to 96.1 hours, and light turbulence increased by 17% from 466.5 to 546.8 hours.

The study found that the US and the North Atlantic have seen the largest increase in turbulence. It has also risen significantly in busy flight routes across Europe, the Middle East and the South Atlantic.

Professor Williams said: “Following a decade of research showing that climate change will increase clear-air turbulence in the future, we now have evidence suggesting that the increase has already begun.

“We should be investing in improved turbulence forecasting and detection systems, to prevent the rougher air from translating into bumpier flights in the coming decades.”

PhD researcher Mark Prosser said turbulence can make flights “occasionally dangerous” and airlines “need to start thinking about how they will manage the increased turbulence, as it costs the industry 150–500 million dollars (£121-483 million) annually in the USA alone.”

He added: “Every additional minute spent travelling through turbulence increases wear and tear on the aircraft, as well as the risk of injuries to passengers and flight attendants.”