NASA: Asteroid 2024 YR4 no longer a threat to earth, but small chance it could hit the moon in 2032

However, there remains a small chance that asteroid 2024 YR4 could impact the Moon in December 2032.

Aaccording to NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA), the odds of an asteroid impact in 2032 were initially as high as 3%, making it a top concern on global asteroid-risk lists. However, further analysis following two months of observation has significantly reduced the likelihood of an Earth impact.

The ESA has now lowered the odds to 0.001%, while NASA estimates the probability at 0.0027%, confirming that the asteroid will safely pass Earth in 2032 and will not pose a threat for at least the next century.

Despite Earth being in the clear, scientists have determined a 1.7% chance that the asteroid could hit the Moon on December 22, 2032.

Telescopes worldwide will continue tracking the asteroid as it moves away from Earth, with the James Webb Space Telescope set to examine its size in more detail next month. The asteroid is expected to vanish from view within a couple of months.

Discovered in December 2023, 2024 YR4 is estimated to be between 40 and 90 meters in diameter and follows an orbit that brings it near Earth every four years.

In a statement, NASA said: “While this asteroid no longer poses a significant impact hazard to Earth, 2024 YR4 provided an invaluable opportunity (for study).”