John Curtice: ‘possible’ Labour won’t win overall majority in 2024 general election, says polling expert

It’s possible Labour won’t get an overall majority in the next election, polling expert John Curtice has said, but the party still has enough “allies” to prevent the Tories getting back into government.

Professor Curtice told NationalWorld that his bets are firmly on the Labour Party taking control of the country at the next election, due in autum 2024, but has said the road to get there “might be bumpy”.

“It’s perfectly possible that Labour won’t get an overall majority,” the polling expert explained, “but it has enough allies in Parliament to still form a government.”

He continued: “The Lib Dems have made it perfectly clear that they will not sustain a Conservative Party administration, but they may sustain a Labour Party one. The Scottish National Party (SNP) is in a similar place - so it’s an asymmetrical contest at this point, if you like.”

Speaking on where the Conservative Party currently lies, he painted a very different picture. “It will be extremely difficult for the Tories to win the next election,” Professor Curtice said. “It’s not difficult to understand why they’re in trouble.

“They were partying in Downing Street while people couldn’t go to funerals. They’ve screwed the economy. And - even if this is to their misfortune - they are presiding over a serious decline in living standards. We are all getting poorer.”

But it’s not just the public that the Tories have lost support with, Professor Curtice insisted. “Their main problem when it comes to hoping to forming a government,” he explained, “is that they have no friends left in the House of Commons - not even the DUP.

“So they will find it very challenging to sustain even a minority administration, even if they end up with more seats than Labour.”

In terms of what else to look out for as the general election approaches, Professor Curtice said that the recent controversy surrounding the SNP - specifically, the arrest of Peter Murrell, husband of former First Minister Nicola Sturgeon - could have significant impacts.

“For the first time since 2015, Labour have a realistic prospect of picking up a handful of seats in Scotland,” he said - predicting that the party could gain around 15 seats north of the border. “This would make it easier to get an overall majority, but it’s hard to make any confident statements as we haven’t had any polling in Scotland since Peter Murrell’s arrest.”

He added that the SNP drama could also help the Tories by making it easier for the party to “hang on to the seats it already has”, but concluded that the situation “definitely helps the Labour Party more.”

The Conservative Party’s best hope, Professor Curtice suggested, is delaying the next general election for as long as possible “in the hope that the economy starts to right itself a bit”. Then, he said, “if we all don’t feel as in trouble, they might be able to gain back some support.”

Meanwhile, Labour’s strategy at present, he said, seems to be keeping their cards relatively close to their chest. “In a sense, they’re being sensible with their politics by trying to push this notion of: ‘The Tories screwed up - we can be trusted to do better.”

“But there are some tough questions to which the Labour Party still doesn’t really have any answers. What would you do about public sector pay, instead of talk? What exactly will you do to ensure the NHS waiting times will go down, given that we’ve maxed out our credit card?

“So they need to be careful. This is where both Rishi Sunak and Keir Starmer struggle - and where they’re more similar than people realise. They’re both technocrats, and as a result, not very good at selling their vision... at selling their ideas for the country in simple terms.

“This is of course what Boris Johnson was very good at. So, even if the outcome looks pretty set, it’ll still be an interesting battle to watch pan out.”