Will Liz Truss face a no confidence vote? How 1922 Committee could change rules to oust the Prime Minister

The Prime Minister Liz Truss resigned from her position after just 44 days in the role.

It comes after Ms Truss met with Sir Graham Brady, chair of the Tory 1922 Committee, after reports emerged that he may have been preparing to call a vote of no confidence after one third of MPs have submitted letters - as opposed to one half, which was initially discussed.

Following the resignation of Ms Truss as Prime Minister and leader of the Conservative Party, a leadership election will take place to decide her successor. The election is expected to take place next week.

It comes as Tory MPs turn against the Prime Minister in the wake of the controversial mini budget, and as the government descended into chaos during a vote on fracking on Wednesday (19 October) - with allegations of MPs being “manhandled” and “bullied” into voting in support of the government. Several MPs have already publicly called for Truss to resign following turmoil in the financial markets, and critics have suggested her already-wavering authority was further undermined when new Chancellor Jeremy Hunt scrapped “almost all” of the huge tax cuts she fought so vehemently for.

Truss has said she is “sorry” for the mistakes that have been made during an interview with the BBC on Tuesday (18 October), but insisted she will lead the Conservatives into the next general election. In Wednesday’s (19 October) PMQs, the South West Norfolk MP claimed she is a “fighter not a quitter” and on Thursday (20 October) Truss’ official spokesperson acknowledged things were “difficult” but said she wanted to push on.

But whether or not she keeps hold of the keys to Number 10 Downing Street may no longer be for Truss to decide. So, could the Prime Minister face a vote of no confidence, can the 1922 Committee change its rules, and how likely is it to happen? Here’s what we know so far.

Could Liz Truss face a no-confidence vote?

In order for a prime minister to lose their job, they must either resign, lose a general election, or lose a confidence vote called by their own party - with the last option being the one many MPs are vying for. However, according to the rules of the 1922 Committee, a prime minister cannot face a vote during their first year in office.

Outside of the one year, 15% of the parliamentary party would have to submit letters of no confidence to committee chair Brady for a vote to be held. Next, a cross-party vote would be held and if at least 50% of MPs vote ‘no confidence’ then the prime minister in question is ousted.

But this cannot currently happen to Truss, given the year-long grace period.

Could the 1922 Committee change the rule?

However, in light of the intense backlash against the Prime Minister, and the increasingly dire outlook for the reputation of the Conservative Party, there has been speculation that the 1922 Committee may scrap the current rules. Hannah Al-Othman, a journalist at the Sunday Times, suggested Brady may call a vote if one third of MPs submit letters of no confidence.

She wrote on Twitter: “On reports that Graham Brady is waiting for 50% of MPs to submit letters: I’m told he will act on letters from a third of MPs, not half. Logic is that by 50% she has lost the confidence of so many MPs that it wouldn’t need a vote. Source says 1922 officers have agreed to this.”

Is it likely?

According to Sky News, a “substantial” number of MPs have already sent letters of no confidence in the Prime Minister to Brady. Speculation on how serious the situation currently is was only heightened then when Truss met with the backbench committee chair on Monday (17 October), while Penny Mordaunt stepped in to answer an Urgent Question from the Labour Party - despite No 10 saying the meeting was “pre-planned”.

These displays of loss of confidence in Truss may force the 1922 Committee’s hand, leaving them with no option but to call a vote - even if it is called in an attempt to solidify the Prime Minister’s position. However, if a vote is called, this could further derail her authority, which is what happened to Boris Johnson, who resigned quickly after surviving a no confidence vote.

After last night’s events, more MPs have openly called for her resignation, and with the news that Truss is currently meeting Brady, the liklihood of her being removed is increasing by the minute.

It most likely depends on how pressure mounts in the coming days or weeks - and how Truss and her Cabinet handle the financial markets, cost of living crisis, and attacks from the opposition.

What else can happen?

One clear option is for Truss to resign from office herself, but her recent proclamations have made this seem unlikely. She told the BBC she “will stay in the job to deliver for the national interest”, and when asked about plots to replace her, insisted “we simply cannot afford to spend our time talking about the Conservative Party.”

There have also been calls for a general election, from both Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and some of the Prime Minister’s own MPs. But the government is not required to call an election until January 2025 at the latest, and given the Conservatives’ dire position in the polls, it is highly unlikely one will be called.