Exclusive:Nigel Farage will snub Tories and return to Reform UK at time of biggest impact, insiders say

Brexit icon Nigel Farage will snub the Tories and return to Reform UK at the time of biggest impact, party insiders have told NationalWorld.

Ever since Farage’s high-profile appearance at the Conservative conference, there has been speculation that he could return to the party he left in 1992 after the signing of the Maastricht Treaty. His appearance on I’m A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here has only heightened interest, with seven in 10 Tory members wanting the 59-year-old to rejoin.

Farage himself has even hinted at this, telling an event in Westminster recently: “I’d be very surprised if I were not Conservative leader by 2026, very surprised …they think I’m joking … I’m serious.” However Reform UK candidates, where Farage is currently honorary president, remain convinced that he will take a more active role in the right-wing insurgent party soon.

“Everyone wants Nigel to come back and have a greater role in the party,” London Assembly and prospective Parliamentary candidate Alan Cook told NationalWorld. “Every time you ask Nigel, he gives the same three-word answer - and that is ‘timing is everything’.”

Cook believes that whenever the former Ukip and Brexit Party leader returns, it will be designed to cause maximum impact.

“When he does come back, because I’m pretty sure he will, there’s going to be a massive raise in interest certainly from the media, and you don’t want that to drop down if the election is a year later,” the Bromley and Biggin Hill candidate said. “He will come back at a set time, and then there will be a massive media furore that will carry through to the election.”

Cook explained that at the Reform UK party conference Farage said he had had a “Priti” good time at the Tory event, referencing his dancing with one former Home Secretary. “He also said he had absolutely no intention of going back to the Tory Party,” Cook said, adding that comments in Westminster have been “a joke, he’s having fun”.

At a press conference in central London today (3 January), Reform UK leader Richard Tice said that Farage "is the master of political timing". He told reporters: "We’ve been talking over the Christmas period and he’s obviously giving a lot of thought as to the extent of the role he wants to play in helping Reform UK frankly save Britain.

“He is still assessing that. Nigel is the master of political timing but I’m very clear the job at hand is so big to save Britain, the more help that Nigel is able to give in the election campaign, frankly, the better.” Confirming Cook's comments to NationalWorld, Tice added: "A good poker player doesn't show their hand too early."

A new survey by People Polling has put Reform UK at 10%, the same as the Lib Dems and only 13 points behind the Conservatives. Tice has said the party will stand candidates in every seat in England, Scotland and Wales at a general election, and Reform’s vote share in by-elections, such as Mid Bedfordshire, has already led to Rishi Sunak losing seats. 

And as the polling numbers squeeze, Cook predicts Conservatives may start to defect as the general election gets closer. He told NationalWorld: “We are already talking to a lot of Conservatives, I can’t name names, but they would surprise you, they’ve surprised me. 

“We would not carte blanche take people from the Tory Party, because about three-quarters of the Tory Party is progressive liberal. We will cherry pick people on what they’ve been saying, how they’ve been voting, do they have the best interests of the UK at heart, because a lot of MPs don’t - they seem to be selling us down the river.”

And fellow Parliamentary candidate in London, Mark Simpson, said he thinks a lot of Reform UK’s new support predates Farage appearance in I’m A Celebrity. “It’s not just since Nigel has been in Australia, we were already popping up in the polls,” he said. 

“There’s been a lot of steady progress, not just since Nigel but for the last year. Has Nigel increased it? Probably yes, but I think most of this increase that we’re seeing predates Nigel in the jungle.”

The pair think this is purely down to dissatisfaction with the Tories’ immigration policies. Recent figures put the net migration to December 2022 at 745,000, a record level and 561,000 people higher compared with when the UK left the EU. Meanwhile Sunak’s Rwanda plan has been held up in the courts.

“Immigration is going to be the driving force - that’s what differentiates us,” Cook, who quit the Tory Party over its migration policy, explained. “We’re the only ones to stop immigration and massively lower legal migration. 

“The current position is one in, one out, so net zero migration. About 400,000 people leave the country every year, that leaves us about 400,000 people to come in with skills and cover the jobs.”

Simpson said: “We don’t need people to come in and do this work, we’ve got millions of our own - out of work and on benefits. What we need is the skilled people - the engineers, the doctors - people who have something to offer, something to contribute. Part of the reason why we voted to leave the EU was to have some control, but that’s something that the Conservatives have given up on.”

Ralph Blackburn is NationalWorld’s politics editor based in Westminster, where he gets special access to Parliament, MPs and government briefings. If you liked this article you can follow Ralph on X (Twitter) here and sign up to his free weekly newsletter Politics Uncovered, which brings you the latest analysis and gossip from Westminster every Sunday morning.