Opinion polls UK: latest Keir Starmer vs Boris Johnson political polls, and when is the next general election

Labour seem to be benefitting from the Conservative’s sleaze problems, but the polls are still tight

The polls have tightened considerably following the so-called Tory sleaze scandals which have dominated politics for the last few weeks, leaving Labour narrowly ahead according to some polling.

The Labour lead seems to be driven by Boris Johnson’s Conservatives losing support, rather than Labour gaining it, which will still be seen as a problem for Sir Keir Starmer’s party.

Sign up to our NationalWorld Today newsletter

The i newsletter cut through the noise

What do the latest opinion polls say?

According to the latest opinion poll, carried out by Panelbase between 10 and 19 November with 3,888 respondents, Labour have a three points lead over the Conservatives.

The poll shows little change for the smaller parties, with the Liberal Democrats down one to nine, while the Greens are up one to six.

The polling was carried out during the height of the coverage of the MPs second jobs issue, and suggests that it has cut-through to some extent.

Here are the full results of the poll, showing changes since September 16th:

  • Conservative - 38 (-3)
  • Labour - 39 (+3)
  • Liberal Democrats - 9 (-1)
  • Green - 6 (+1)
  • Other - 8 (-)

Across three other recent polls, Labour only trail the Tories in one, though they only lead the Conservatives by a single point in all the polls which put them ahead.

Here are the results of the other most recent polls.

YouGov, 17-18 November

  • Con: 36%
  • Lab: 34%
  • Green: 10%
  • Lib Dem: 7%
  • Reform UK: 5%
  • SNP: 4%

Redfield and Wilton, 15 November

  • Labour 37%
  • Conservative 36%
  • Liberal Democrat 10%
  • Green 5%
  • Scottish National Party 4%
  • Reform UK 4%
  • Plaid Cymru 1%
  • Other 2%

Opinium, 10-12 November

  • Labour: 37%
  • Conservative: 36%
  • Lib Dem: 9%
  • Green: 7%
  • Plaid Cymru 1%
  • Other 5%

Has the second jobs scandal impacted the polls?

There has been speculation that stories about so-called ‘sleaze’ among MPs, such as taking on excessive work outside of parliament or potential conflicts of interest, won’t have a major effect on the polls, partly because voters already assume this goes on, and think it is fairly evenly spread between parties.

The public is generally against MPs being able to take on second jobs at all, with a Survation survey commissioned by NationalWorld finding that 68% of people think they should be banned.

While the news agenda seems to have moved on from MPs second jobs for now, there are still a number of looking issues which might see the Conservatives lose support, not least from voters in the North of England after the change of policy on the eastern leg of HS2.

When is the next election?

The next general election is not scheduled to take place until 2024, five years on from the 2019 election which saw Boris Johnson secure a comfortable majority in order to ‘Get Brexit Done’ and eventually led to Jeremy Corbyn stepping down as Labour leader.

However, there has been ongoing speculation that the Conservatives could call an general election earlier than required, potentially in 2023.

Since the last general election there have been a number of by-elections, with the Conservatives gaining in Hartlepool from Labour, Labour just about holding on in Batley and Spen, and the Liberal Democrats pulling off a surprise victory in Chesham and Amersham at the expense of the Tories.

The next by-election to take place will be in the Old Bexley and Sidcup constituency which was held by Conservative MP and former Northern Ireland secretary James Brokenshire, who died of lung cancer earlier this year.

Voters in the London constituency will go to the polls on 2 December, with a Conservative hold highly likely given the existing 17,000 majority.

There will also be a by-election on 16 December in North Shropshire, a seat which was held by the disgraced Conservative MP Owen Paterson until he resigned following a report which found he had broken parliamentary rules on paid lobbying.

Although still considered a relatively safe Tory seat, this by-election may prove more interesting given the circumstances in which Paterson resigned.

A by-election will have to take place in Sir David Amess’ Southend West constituency, although the major parties will not contest the seat, as was the case when Jo Cox was killed in 2016.

There could also be a by-election in Leicester East, currently held by Independent MP Claudia Webbe, who was elected as a Labour MP in 2019 but lost the whip due to allegations of harassment, for which she has now been convicted.

Labour have called for Webbe to resign from the seat, triggering a by-election, but the MP has said she is appealing the ruling.