Opinion polls: what do the latest polls in Scotland say? Will Labour win the next election in Scotland?

Labour could be on course to become the largest party in Scotland at the next general election, according to a new opinion poll.

In the first poll carried out since Nicola Sturgeon’s arrest as part of an ongoing investigation into the SNP’s finances, the ruling party in Scotland has suffered a major drop in support.

Under Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar the party has been recovering ground on the SNP after falling to a historic low of just one Scottish seat in Westminster at the last election.

This comes as Keir Starmer laid out plans to make Scotland the centre of the UK’s green industrial strategy if Labour win the next election, saying that he will set out to make Britain a “clean energy superpower”.

What are the most recent poll results in Scotland?

Labour and the SNP are neck-and-neck in terms of support, with both parties on 34%, according to the polling carried out by Panelbase on behalf of the Sunday Times.

This represents a relatively rapid shift in support since the last Panelbase poll in late March, with the SNP dropping five percentage points and Labour gaining three. The poll puts the Conservatives on 18% and the Liberal Democrats on seven.

Based on this polling, Labour are projected to become the largest party in Scotland for the first time since 2010, having been increasingly pushed to the margins by the rise of the SNP over the last 13 years.

Here is the projected number of Scottish MPs to be elected, based on the polling.

• Labour: 26
• SNP: 21
• Conservative: 7
• Lib Dem: 5

If borne out in a general election, these results would represent a seismic shift in Scottish politics, with the governing party losing more than half its seats, and Labour picking up an additional 25 to add to their current solitary seat north of the border.

How will Scotland factor in Labour’s chances of winning the next general election?

While Labour has been keen to stress that it is not complacent about securing a much-improved haul of seats in Scotland at the next election, the party is increasingly confident of its appeal in the wake of the SNP’s rapid implosion in recent months.

Ailing fortunes in Scotland have played a big part in Labour’s overall failure to breakthrough in recent elections, particularly in 2015 and 2017. National polling suggests the party is on course for a strong performance at the next election, which will come before February 2025. But there are still concerns that Labour may not be able to form a majority. A result in Scotland like the one projected in this poll would make a Labour-majority government in Westminster all the more likely.

What has Nicola Sturgeon said after her arrest?

The former first minister of Scotland Nicola Sturgeon said “I’ve done nothing wrong” as she returned home for the first time following her arrest last Sunday.

She was questioned by police in connection with the inquiry into the SNP’s finances and was released without charge on 11 June pending further investigation. Sturgeon was the third person to be arrested as Police Scotland look into how more than £600,000 in donations to the party earmarked for an independence referendum has been used.

Her husband, Peter Murrell, the SNP’s former chief executive, and ex-SNP treasurer Colin Beattie MSP were also released without charge pending further investigation.

Returning to her home in Glasgow, on Sunday (18 June), Sturgeon said: “I can’t say very much just now. What I will say is reiterate the statement I issued last Sunday – I’m certain that I have done nothing wrong.

“I intend to be back in Parliament in the early part of the week, I’ll make myself available for questions then. For now I intend to go home and catch up with some family.”