Prime Minister Rishi Sunak refuses to rule out July general election on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips

Rishi Sunak has once more refused to rule out a July general election, amid speculation a disastrous set of local elections results for the Tories could force his hand. The Prime Minister said he would not “say anything more than I’ve already said”, which is that the national poll is likely to be in the second half of the year.

Most Westminster analysts take this as meaning October or November, although it could technically also mean July. However, a drubbing in mayoral and council elections on May 2 could either lead to a challenge to his leadership or persuade him that an earlier polling day could be a better solution than limping on with a divided party.

The defection of a Conservative ex-health minister to Labour could further spook already restive Tory MPs and increase pressure on the Prime Minister. Dr Dan Poulter announced on Saturday (April 27) he was quitting the Tory Party, which he accused of no longer prioritising the overstretched NHS.

Mr Sunak was asked on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips (April 27), recorded before Dr Poulter’s shock defection, whether the latter half of 2024 could mean July. The Prime Minister said: “I’m not going to say anything more than I’ve already said, I’ve been very clear about that.”

Pressed repeatedly whether he was ruling out July, he said: “I’m not going to do that. You’re going to try and draw whatever conclusion you want from what I say. I’m going to always try and say the same thing. You should just listen to what I said, same thing I’ve said all year.”

Mr Sunak also signalled he could wait for economic improvements to come through, in an apparent hint at a poll later in the year. “I’m determined to make sure that people feel when the election comes that the future is better, that we have turned the corner,” he said.

There were rumours swirling in Westminster on Friday (April 26) that Mr Sunak could fire the starting gun on an election campaign as soon as Monday in a bid to thwart a possible challenge from restive MPs, though Downing Street brushed them off. The latest possible date he could hold the election is January 28, 2025.