Rochdale by election: odds, candidates, date and controversy explained

The Rochdale by-election is shaping up to be one of the most controversial of modern times, with multiple candidates mired in scandal.

The election in Greater Manchester was called after the death of Labour MP Tony Lloyd, yet Keir Starmer's party is now not even contesting the seat. Both Labour and the Green Party are no longer endorsing their candidates, while George Galloway is hoping to make the by-election a poll on war in the Middle East. His leaflets state "For Rochdale, for Gaza" and are adorned with the Palestinian colours.

When is the Rochdale by-election, who are all the candidates and who is the favourite to win? Here's everything you need to know.

Date of Rochdale by-election

The Rochdale by-election is being held on Thursday 29 February. Polls will open at 7am and close at 10pm, and we will likely find out the result in the early hours of Friday morning.

Who are the Rochdale by-election candidates?

Lancashire County Councillor Azhar Ali had been the Labour Party candidate, however it withdrew its support after a recording surfaced of Ali suggesting that Israel "deliberately allowed" the 7 October Hamas massacre as a pretext to invade Gaza.

He also blamed "people in the media from certain Jewish quarters" for getting the whip withdrawn from Andy MacDonald. Stating that Jewish people control the media is a classic anti-Semitic trope. Ali has since apologised for remarks. While it will say he is Labour's candidate on the voting slip, the party has withdrawn its support from him and if elected he would sit as an independent.

Galloway is standing for his Workers Party of Britain, while also standing to be Mayor of London. He was an MP in Glasgow from 1987 to 2005, representing Labour until 2003 when he was kicked out of the party for telling soldiers in Iraq to disobey orders.

He became the independent MP in Bethnal Green and Bow, east London from 2005 to 2010 before losing to Rushanara Ali, and was also MP in Bradford West from 2012 to 2015. Galloway fought a dirty campaign against his Labour rival Naz Shah, now the MP for Bradford West, claiming she was 16 instead of 15 when she was forced into marriage. He said this mattered because it played into Pakistani stereotypes.

Galloway, 69, met Saddam Hussein and described him as "your excellency", and has praised the Soviet Union, the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah and Syria's murderous dictator Bashar al-Assad.

Reform UK's candidate Simon Danczuk was the Labour MP for Rochdale from 2010 to 2017. He was suspended from the Labour Party in 2015 for sending explicit messages to a 17-year-old girl. Danczuk, 57, contested the 2017 as an independent but came fifth.

He is now standing for Richard Tice's anti-immigration party Reform UK. A man has been arrested for allegedly sending Danczuk a death threat in the build up to the by-election. A video was filmed by someone who referred to Danczuk as “a white devil” and threatened to “put one in his head”.

While Guy Otten is no longer being endorsed as the Green Party candidate after Islamophobic historic social media posts about Muslims and Gaza came to light. He said: "The Green message is too urgent and too important to be distracted by some regrettable social media posts I made a number of years ago. In the interests of the Green Party I have decided to leave the stage."

Odds for Rochdale by-election

George Galloway is the favourite for the Rochdale by-election, after Labour pulled its support from disgraced candidate Azhar Ali. Galloway is odds on with Star Sports at 8/13, while Ali is now priced at 5/4.

Former MP Simon Danczuk is priced at 50/1, while the Tories' Paul Ellison is 100/1. William Kedjanyi, political betting analyst at Star Sports, said: “George Galloway’s competitors for the Rochdale seat seem to be vanishing before our eyes which has seen him fly even further into favouritism for the upcoming by-election.

“Given that Labour and the Green Party have pulled support for their Rochdale candidates, Galloway’s Workers Party sit at 8/13 to succeed in the Rochdale by-election, from 4/6 just last week. In contrast, Labour have drifted out to 2/1 from 5/4. This looks to be a two-horse race at best between George Galloway and Labour, with Reform UK behind at 50/1."

Ralph Blackburn is NationalWorld’s politics editor based in Westminster, where he gets special access to Parliament, MPs and government briefings. If you liked this article you can follow Ralph on X (Twitter) here and sign up to his free weekly newsletter Politics Uncovered, which brings you the latest analysis and gossip from Westminster every Sunday morning.