Rutherglen and Hamilton West: ‘seismic’ Labour victory offers route to overall majority at general election

A victorious Labour candidate in Scotland, a majority of almost 10,000 against a government overwhelmed by division and sleaze. No it’s not 1997 but 2023.

North of the border, it’s now the Scottish National Party that’s imploding after more than a decade in power, and the sudden decline gives Sir Keir Starmer a much easier route to Number 10.

This was illustrated by Labour’s stunning win in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election, in the south-east suburbs of Glasgow, which saw candidate Michael Shanks secure a 20% swing with a majority of 9,446.

The party has been in the wilderness in Scotland for years, going from winning 41 seats in 2010 to only one nine years later. The SNP has dominated politics north of the border for the last decade, however support has dropped after a high-profile police investigation into party finances saw Nicola Sturgeon and her husband Peter Murrell arrested and later released without charge.

Much-promised improvements in educational attainment have failed to materialise, and A&E waiting times have hit record levels. On top of this, support for independence has waivered - with Sturgeon’s decision to make the next general election a de-facto referendum questioned and pressure is on new leader Humza Yousaf.

After the by-election win, Starmer said: “This is a seismic result. People in Rutherglen and Hamilton West have sent a clear message – it is time for change. And it is clear they believe that this changed Labour Party can deliver it.”

If Labour can pick up a significant number of seats north of the border, it reduces the amount of Conservative safe seats required to flip to win an overall majority. And from projecting Labour to win around 15 MPs earlier in the year, elections guru Professor John Curtice now believes the party could take around 40. 

“This result very firmly confirms the direction of travel indicated by the polls and that Labour do pose a serious challenge to the SNP’s continued dominance at Westminster,” Prof Curtice said. 

“That potentially has implications for the overall outcome in the general election because if that were to happen, they would find it easier to get an overall majority.

“But also the kinds of increases that Labour have registered in their vote in this by-election, what they achieved in Selby, this is the kind of results that you see in advance of general elections when parties are on course to win.”

Prof Curtice said if this swing was mirrored at a general election, Labour would once again become the biggest party in Scotland. He said: “This looks much more like the kind of result we might have expected in a by-election in Scotland, in the west of Scotland, before the 2014 independence referendum, after which, of course, Labour’s representation in Scotland collapsed.

“With nearly 59% of the vote, Labour’s share of the vote in the constituency is almost as high as it was back in the 2010 general election. And if – obviously it’s a big if – the swing since 2019 were to be replicated across Scotland as a whole, you are talking of Labour being back to having about 40 seats and the SNP being back down to not much more than half a dozen seats.”

He added that the swings were comparable to 1997, when Tony Blair won a landslide victory against a Tory government overcome with sleaze after 18 years in power. Certain similarities are obvious.

Fellow pollster Mark Diffley told Sky: “I think for Labour this signifies both a return to previous dominance here in Scotland. And actually, more importantly in the short term given how close we are to a general election, it makes Keir Starmer’s job of winning power next year much easier.”

He agreed that the victory shows Labour could win up to 40 seats in Scotland, although there were some unique factors in this by-election to take into account.

It was a recall election, after former SNP MP Margaret Ferrier was suspended from the Commons for 30 days for breaking Covid rules. Ferrier developed Covid symptoms on September 26, 2020 – a Saturday – and took a test, but still went to church and had lunch with a family member the following day. 

On the Monday, while awaiting the result of the test, she travelled by train to London, took part in a Commons debate and ate in the Members’ Tearoom in Parliament. That evening she received a text telling her the test was positive. But instead of isolating, she travelled back to Scotland by train the following morning.

She was accused of two breaches of the code of conduct for MPs, however denied that she placed “personal interest above the public interest”. She was kicked out of the SNP, and even though Sturgeon told her to resign she held onto her seat until the recall by-election - more than three years after she broke Covid rules. 

So at the moment it isn’t clear whether this vote was against Margaret Ferrier or for Labour. Starmer’s party has never won a general election without winning a majority of seats in Scotland, and votes north of the border could hold the keys to Number 10.