Sir Simon Clarke calls for Rishi Sunak to resign: how can Tory MPs oust Prime Minister - likelihood analysed

The Tory Party has once again descended into internecine warfare with a former Cabinet Minister calling for Rishi Sunak to resign.

Sir Simon Clarke, the former Levelling Up Secretary, wrote in the Daily Telegraph that “extinction is a very real possibility” for the party if Sunak leads it into the election this year. “The unvarnished truth is that Rishi Sunak is leading the Conservatives into an election where we will be massacred,” he said.

If a general election was held today (24 January), the New Statesman’s Britain Predicts model says Labour would win a landslide with 410 MPs and the Tories would be left with just 160 MPs. Politico’s poll of polls puts Sir Keir Starmer’s party 18 points ahead of the Conservatives. 

Clarke, who represents Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland, is the second Conservative MP to call for Sunak to resign after Boris Johnson acolyte Dame Andrea Jenkyns. However he was faced with a backlash from senior Tories including Ben Wallace, Dame Priti Patel and Sir David Davies.

Wallace said: “My colleague Sir Simon Clarke MP is wrong. The way to win the next election is to tackle inflation and grow the economy. Rishi is doing just that. Division and another PM would lead to the certain loss of power. We need to focus on delivering for the public, not divisive rowing.”

If Sunak was ousted there would be a fourth Conservative Prime Minister in less than two years - three of which would not have been elected in a general election. How can Tory MPs oust Sunak, and will there have to be a general election? Here’s everything you need to know.

What has Sir Simon Clarke said about Rishi Sunak?

The former Levelling Up Secretary and Chief Secretary to the Treasury launched a withering attack on Sunak in the Daily Telegraph. He said: “It is now beyond doubt that whilst the Prime Minister is far from solely responsible for our present predicament, his uninspiring leadership is the main obstacle to our recovery. 

Rishi Sunak has sadly gone from asset to anchor. He lags Keir Starmer - himself no Tony Blair - by double digits on the ‘Best Prime Minister’ metric.”

Clarke wrote: “He does not get what Britain needs. And he is not listening to what the British people want.” He specifically called out his leader over immigration.

“The British people cannot fathom why our government is letting tens of thousands of people illegally cross the Channel every year,” the Red Wall MP said. “The Prime Minister seems to have sadly accepted novel, extreme and anti-democratic interpretations of international law that effectively tell the British people they cannot have a border.”

He added: “I know many MPs are afraid another change of leader would look ridiculous. But what could be more ridiculous than meekly sleepwalking towards an avoidable annihilation because we were not willing to listen to what the public are telling us so clearly?”

How can Tory MPs oust Rishi Sunak?

According to the 1922 Committee, which sets the Tory leadership rules, 15% of the Conservative parliamentary party (its MPs) would have to submit letters of no confidence. As the Conservatives currently have 349 MPs, this would mean 53 letters would need to be sent to 1922 chair Sir Graham Brady.

After that, a confidence vote in the House of Commons would be called - and if more than 50% of all MPs vote against the Prime Minister, Sunak would have to resign. In reality, it would be unlikely to get to that point as usually the Tory would quit if they don’t have the confidence of their party, like Liz Truss.

So far, only two letters of no confidence are known to have been sent in - one from Dame Andrea Jenkyns and presumably one from Clarke. However, there could be more that haven’t been made public.

Will this lead to a general election?

Even if the Tory Party changes leader (again!) the new PM still wouldn’t be required to call a general election, as voters elect a party not a Prime Minister. In theory, they could wait until January 2025 to call the next poll - as per law. 

However, in reality if another unelected Conservative leader was put in place - the third in 18 months after Truss and Sunak - the pressure to call an election would be too intense to avoid.

In Clarke’s scenario it would be impossible for a new PM to avoid calling a snap election, so it’s likely voting day would be held in May on the same day as the locals.

Ralph Blackburn is NationalWorld’s politics editor based in Westminster, where he gets special access to Parliament, MPs and government briefings. If you liked this article you can follow Ralph on X (Twitter) here and sign up to his free weekly newsletter Politics Uncovered, which brings you the latest analysis and gossip from Westminster every Sunday morning.