The Conservative Party could be left with no MPs if a recent opinion poll was replicated at a general election.
PeoplePolling had the Tories at just 14%, which is one of the lowest recorded in recent memory of the party. The poll gives the Labour Party a 39 point lead. It also puts the Conservatives just three points ahead of the Liberal Democrats.
According to some estimates if the above poll were to be replicated in a general election, then the Tories would not return with a single MP.
Opinion polls are of course just an estimate of voter intention, and are based on representative samples of the population, rather than the whole electorate. It should also be noted that the next general election may not take place until January 2025 at the latest, and a lot can change before then.
The poll comes as the Conservative Party begins the search for yet another new leader following the resignation of Liz Truss. Former Prime Minister Boris Johnson is one of the names being mentioned, alongside Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt.
What are the latest opinion poll results?
The latest PeoplePolling poll of 1,237 adults has placed Labour 39 points ahead of Conservatives - with Sir Keir Starmer’s party on 53% and the Tories on just 14% - when voters were asked which party they would choose if a general election took place tomorrow.
The poll had the Lib Dems on 11%, Greens on 6% and SNP on 5%. The groundwork for the poll was conducted on Thursday (20 October).
And the picture does not get anymore optimistic for the Tories in another poll from Redfield & Wilton Strategies. The poll from Wednesday (19 October), gives Labour a 36 point lead over the Conservatives, which was described at the time as the “biggest lead for any party with any polling company since October 1997”.
The poll put Labour on 55%, Conservatives on 19%, Lib Dems on 12%, Greens, SNP and Reform on 4%. The Westminster Voting Intention poll is from 19 October.
What would this look like in a general election?
If a general election was held tomorrow and replicated the results of the PeoplePolling poll, it would leave the Conservatives with 0 MPs and Labour would win 554 seats, an increase of 351 on the 2019 result. This is according to predictions from Electoral Calculus.
Electoral Calculus also predicts that if the Redfield & Wilton Strategies poll result was replicated in a general election, Labour would win 554 seats and the Conservatives would be left with a single MP. The Lib Dems would see an increase of 11 in 2019, winning 19 MPs.
It of course remains incredibly unlikely that the Tories would end up with zero MPs or even just one at an election. It is simply analysis based on recent polls.
How do the opinion polls work?
The PeoplePolling survey was carried out on 20 October and it is weighted to be representative of the population on the following variables: gender, age, socio-economic group, region, vote in the 2019 General Elections and 2016 Brexit referendum vote.
For the Redfield & Wilton Strategies, the poll was conducted on 19 October.
What’s behind the latest opinion poll results?
The last week has been another tumultuous one for the Conservative Party. Liz Truss fired her Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng on Friday 14 October, replacing him with Jeremy Hunt.
Mr Hunt then proceeded to U-turn on almost all the major policies announced in the September mini-budget in an address on Monday (17 October) in a bid to stabilise the markets.
Ms Truss presided over more cabinet turmoil as Home Secretary Suella Braverman resigned on Wednesday (19 October) following what has been described as a “security breach”. In the hours that followed, chaotic and ugly scenes in the House of Commons during a vote on an opposition day motion, including claims of MPs being “manhandled”, raised more concerns about Ms Truss’ government.
She announced that she would be resigning as Prime Minister after just 44 days in the role on Thursday. Addressing the nation outside Number 10 Downing Street, Ms Truss said that the leadership contest would last a week.