Winter storms coming: Scientists warn of increased risk from Arctic weather vortex hitting the UK

New research led by the University of Leeds and the UK Met Office has uncovered a direct link between a stronger-than-normal stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and the formation of back-to-back winter storms across northern Europe, including the UK. The findings were published today in the journal Communications Earth and Environment.

The study sheds light on why the UK was hit by three named storms — Dudley, Eunice and Franklin — within just one week in February 2022, a rare and destructive weather pattern. The storms left a trail of destruction, causing four deaths, power outages in over 1 million homes, and record-setting wind gusts of 122 miles per hour at the Needles on the Isle of Wight during Storm Eunice.

Lead author Dr Ryan Williams, who conducted the research while at the University of Leeds, said: “Our research demonstrates the need to better understand the different drivers of the North Atlantic storm track, such as the state of the stratospheric polar vortex that is potentially predictable several weeks in advance.”

He added: “Being able to provide early warnings of possible severe weather is all the more pertinent with climate change, as there is evidence that major winter storms will become more intense, exacerbating impacts such as flooding and wind damage.”

The stratospheric polar vortex — a powerful band of winds spinning 15 miles above the Arctic — was exceptionally strong in February 2022. The researchers found that such a vortex can increase the risk of intense storms in the UK by up to three times and raise the chance of three or more storms hitting within a single week by about 80%, compared to when the vortex is at normal strength.

Co-author Jeff Knight, the Science Lead in Monthly to Decadal Prediction at the Met Office, said: “It’s been understood for a while that the Arctic stratosphere can affect the type of winter we get in the UK, but these results show that it can even affect the occurrence of stormy spells within the season.”

He continued: “An intense stratospheric polar vortex can now be recognised as a warning to forecasters of increased risks of damaging storms. This was likely seen in the most recent winter, around the time of Storm Eowyn in late January.”

Crucially, the researchers discovered that warning signs of a strong polar vortex were detectable as early as November 2021, giving meteorologists a valuable lead time for forecasting potential clusters of winter storms.

Professor Amanda Maycock, who led the project at the School of Earth and Environment, said: “The stormy conditions and strong stratospheric polar vortex during February 2022 bear parallels to other periods, such as what occurred in February 2020 and even what we have seen at the start of this year. Future work should investigate the connection we have found for other winters.”