Rishi Sunak’s immigration election risks playing into the hands of Richard Tice and Reform

Basking in the glow of his Commons victory, Sunak gave a short speech - just two minutes and 30 seconds long - in which his message was clear, Labour has “no plan” while “the Conservative Party has come together”. I’m not sure Suella Braverman will agree with the latter. 

The Prime Minister hit out at Parliament’s second chamber, who will now start further scrutiny of the Rwanda Bill. He asked: “Will the opposition in the appointed House of Lords try and frustrate the will of the people as expressed by the elected House or will they get on board and do the right thing.”

And Sunak had some strong rhetoric about the Labour Party. He said if Keir Starmer was elected it would give “the green light to people smugglers” and “mean more people are likely to lose their lives by tragically drowning in the channel”.

Powerful stuff from the Prime Minister, with Home Secretary James Cleverly offering grunts of approval from the front row. However when he was quizzed by journalists, the strong words started to slip and Sunak offered little detail on a number of key issues raised by Tory rebels and voters.

Firstly, the PM gave no guarantee that a flight would take off before the election. Responding to the question from the Daily Mail’s Jason Groves, Sunak merely said: “What I can tell you is I want to see this happen as soon as practically possible.”

He also skirted around European Convention on Human Rights rulings, which is one of the key issues for right-wing Tory MPs. Rebels like Suella Braverman and Bill Cash want guarantees that the PM will overrule injunctions brought in by ECHR judges, while moderates are concerned this would mean the UK was breaching international law.

Sunak said “if you’re asking me are there circumstances in which I will ignore rule 39s, then the answer is clearly yes”, however declined to give detail on what his red lines would be. Sunak also appeared to confirm there would be no sanction for the 11 Tory MPs who voted against the three-line whip last night.

The question rippling around Westminster is why did the PM call this press conference, and bring more attention onto a policy which not even GB News’ viewers think will work? The more Sunak focuses on immigration, the more he highlights his own failures and pushes Tory voters towards Richard Tice and Reform UK. Now one in nine of the Conservatives’ 2019 voting bloc has said it will vote Reform.

Prof Sara Hobolt, from LSE, explained this issue at a UK in a Changing Europe conference. She said: “The Conservatives have just handed them [Reform] the biggest gift by saying we are going to campaign on immigration, the one issue where they [Reform] might be able to attract voters.

“If you go into an election on the cost of living people might vote for them as a protest vote, but they are not going to make a mark. But if it’s all about immigration, you’re getting a party [Reform] that has a tougher stance on immigration and is a party that is not hampered by 13 years in government with immigration increasing.

“The Conservatives by making immigration salient they are thinking we are picking a fight with Labour, but they have potentially another flank to the right of them that can make a more credible case for saying we can do something about it.”

If you ask Reform UK candidates what is driving their rise in the polls, they all say one word. “Immigration is going to be the driving force - that’s what differentiates us,” Parliamentary candidate Alan Cook, who quit the Tory Party over its migration policy, told NationalWorld. “We’re the only ones to stop immigration and massively lower legal migration.” 

The Prime Minister may think his rhetoric on small boats will help him against Labour, but actually it plays into the hands of his rivals on the right.

Ralph Blackburn is NationalWorld’s politics editor based in Westminster, where he gets special access to Parliament, MPs and government briefings. If you liked this article you can follow Ralph on X (Twitter) here and sign up to his free weekly newsletter Politics Uncovered, which brings you the latest analysis and gossip from Westminster every Sunday morning.