Can Arsenal win the Champions League? Supercomputer predicts which team will lift the trophy

In last night’s (April 15) Champions League clashes, Premier League club Villa were eliminated 5-4 on aggregate by the French giants, having mounted a gargantuan comeback at Villa Park. Meanwhile, Barca actually lost 3-1 to Dortmund, but went through on a 5-3 aggregate from the two legs.

Tonight (April 16), Arsenal travel to Real Madrid with a 3-0 advantage, while Inter Milan host Bayern Munich; the Italian side beat Bayern 2-1 last time out.

Predictions about who might lift the trophy at the end of the season are rampant. Arsenal fans are generally remaining coy about their chances, while Barcelona and Real Madrid’s die-hard fans are convinced they have a God-given right to silverware - regardless of how their teams are playing.

One of the best ways to mathematically examine each team’s chances is through a supercomputer, and Opta’s is perhaps the most reliable of these. It uses a model that balances Opta’s own power rankings of each team with the probabilities of various results.

This certainly isn’t a fool-proof system, and the magic of football can still swoop down with divine intervention. After all, Opta had Liverpool as the clear favourites after the group stage, only for the Reds to be eliminated by PSG.

As it stands, Opta’s supercomputer has Barcelona as the favourites to win the Champions League this season, with a 27.4 per cent chance of lifting the trophy. They are closely followed by PSG on 25.7 per cent, then Arsenal on 24.3 per cent.

Meanwhile, Real Madrid are apparently now the outsiders to win, with just a 1.8 per cent chance ahead of their clash with the Gunners at the Bernabeu tonight. Opta writers say these numbers will inevitably change after this evening’s games.

Here are the full statistics from Opta:

Barcelona: 27.4 per cent

PSG: 25.7 per cent

Arsenal: 24.3 per cent

Inter Milan: 16.6 per cent

Bayern Munich: 4.2 per cent

Real Madrid: 1.8 per cent