Istanbul earthquake: Expert warns that 'big' and 'more powerful' quake is still coming - after more than 200 injured jumping from buildings amid 6.2 tremor

The earthquake, with a shallow depth of six miles (10km), struck with its epicentre in the Sea of Marmara, about 25 miles (40km) southwest of Istanbul, according to the United States Geological Survey. Health minister Kemall Memisoglu said a total of 236 people from across the city were being treated in hospitals after surviving falls or leaping from the building to escape the earthquake.

He said 173 of the injuries were in Istanbul while the rest were in surrounding provinces. Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya said the earthquake lasted 13 seconds and was followed by more than 100 aftershocks, the strongest measuring 5.9 in magnitude.

According to local news outlet Türkiye Today, geophysicist Professor Ovgun Ahmet Ercan emphasized that this is not the long-anticipated “big Istanbul earthquake.” He told T24, that a major quake will strike and is projected to be between magnitude 7.0 and 7.2—approximately 22 times more powerful than the recent seismic event.

He said: “This quake told us a lot. It showed us the next one will occur 7 to 13 kilometers beneath the surface in a granite layer and will happen along a right-lateral strike-slip fault in the North Anatolian Fault system. The duration of the major quake is expected to exceed 30 to 35 seconds”.

He added that the latest quake does not act as a trigger, delay, or stress reliever for the major event. He said: “It does not lower the probability. It doesn’t bring it forward, and it doesn’t postpone it either”.

Turkey is crossed by two major fault lines, and earthquakes are frequent. At least 53,000 people were killed in a 7.8-magnitude earthquake on 6 February 2023 which was followed by a second powerful tremor.

The earthquake caused vast damage to buildings and roads in 11 southern and southeastern provinces. The same earthquake killed 6,000 people in neighbouring Syria.