Rishi Sunak set modest expectations for his US meeting with Joe Biden but got what he came for

When Rishi Sunak and the travelling press pack began their transatlantic journey on Tuesday evening (6 June), it’s fair to say the government was in “expectation management” mode - in other words, not wanting to create the impression that President Biden was about to do deals with the UK so big that the Prime Minister would be grinning all the way home.

As the plane left Stansted for Washington, Sunak told the gaggle of reporters crowded around him that a free trade agreement hadn’t been a priority for either country “for a while now”. Bear in mind, the Conservatives promised in their 2019 election manifesto they’d deliver an agreement within three years - but as we’ve seen with immigration targets, Sunak doesn’t always feel bound by that manifesto (which some think feels like a pre-pandemic relic).

Instead, the PM said this visit was about improving trade in “specific and targeted ways”. There’d be discussions about how Britain could play a bigger international role in making artificial intelligence safer and, of course, a renewed commitment to backing Ukraine. These were all fairly modest objectives so you have to assume - just like when Biden accidentally called Sunak “Mr President” as the two men sat down in front of the White House cameras - Downing Street perhaps got very slightly more than it bargained for.

The Atlantic Declaration

Let’s start with trade. The leaders announced what’s been dubbed The Atlantic Declaration (which even comes with its own logo) to ease import and export barriers between the UK and US. It’s more of a ‘plan’ than a ‘deal’ - some of it hasn’t actually been fleshed out yet - but could prove quite important for our growing electric car industry. Simply put, British companies involved in mining or recycling critical minerals like lithium - which are used to build electric vehicle batteries - could benefit from tax breaks if they supply those minerals to the US.

There’s also a promise to build what’s been dubbed a ‘data bridge’ - allowing 55,000 UK businesses to transfer data to American organisations and face less red tape in the process. The government says that will save firms £92 million a year. These might be small beer compared with the terms of any free trade deal, and Labour has dubbed Sunak’s trade mission a failure, but they are pledges he didn’t have in his pocket before.

Leading the AI effort

Then there’s AI. As we’ve reported several times at NationalWorld in recent weeks, the PM has done a 180-degree turn on his approach to artificial intelligence. In March, he didn’t want to regulate it - worried that tech companies mulling over big investments in the UK would build their headquarters elsewhere if they thought their hands would be tied. Since then, we’ve had warning after warning from some of AI’s leading experts about the dangers it might pose. A cautious politician by nature who prefers to have all the evidence in front of him, Sunak knew he couldn’t ignore the frightening noises from those in the know and changed tack. He now says “guardrails” (as he keeps referring to them) are necessary to make sure new technological innovations are safe for human use.

Understandably, there was scepticism about whether Biden - as leader of the world’s most advanced tech economy - would want his British counterpart to take charge of the international response to AI and come up with the rules of the game. In fact, the President welcomed it - even saying the US was looking to the UK to “lead the effort” at a global summit due to take place in London in the autumn. Biden didn’t have to put it in those terms, but he did - giving Sunak’s presence on the world stage a useful lift.

Solidarity on Ukraine

It’s also clear that Biden is grateful for Sunak’s continued support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. The two men are from opposite sides of the political spectrum - and the body language suggests the President sees his relationship with the PM as businesslike rather than close friendship. But Biden thanked him for his “strong, strong leadership” on the war as public opinion in America becomes increasingly impatient for results on the battlefield. Sunak was at pains to point out they were completely united on the issue. “We’re not going anywhere”, he said from the White House lectern - “we will be here for as long as it takes”.

That valued commitment allowed Biden to utter the words British Prime Ministers have been desperate to hear since Winston Churchill coined the phrase in 1946: the ‘special relationship’ between the UK and US was in “real good shape”. This matters to Sunak, who’s tried to paint himself as the man to restore Britain’s reputation on the global stage after the Boris Johnson and Liz Truss years.

The trip to Washington has certainly given the PM a break from unwelcome headlines at home. Monday’s update on the progress he’d made stopping small boat crossings in the English Channel left more questions than answers; a major opinion poll found Labour could storm to a landslide victory at the next general election; and there’s continued disbelief from opposition parties that the government is going to court to stop the Covid-19 inquiry seeing all the WhatsApp messages it’s asked for.

These issues will quickly return to the top of the agenda but on the plane back to London, Sunak will likely be thinking he got what he needed politically from his short Stateside visit - and, in terms of public endorsement from his most important ally, a little bit more.