Conservative leadership: would Boris Johnson win another election? What polling expert John Curtice says

The Labour Party would “not believe their luck” if Boris Johnson returned as Prime Minister, a leading polling expert has said.

After a humiliating 44 days in office Liz Truss is no longer PM, and the race is on to find her replacement, with reports saying Boris Johnson could be about to make the mother of all comebacks.

The disgraced ex-Prime Minister, who resigned earlier this year after numerous scandals tarnished his credibility, has allegedly thrown his hat in the ring to have another stint in high office. He has not yet publicly declared his intention to run as he is reportedly on holiday in the Caribbean, despite parliament not being in recess.

The MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip has already received the public backing of some senior party members too, most notably Jacob Rees-Mogg, who announced his support earlier today (21 October). No candidate has yet openly declared their intention to run for leader but Rishi Sunak and Penny Mordaunt have also received the backing of some MPs.

How likely is it that Johnson will reclaim the keys to Number 10 and could he turn the tide on the chaotic scenes engulfing the Tory party?

We spoke with election guru Sir John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University and senior research fellow at the Scottish Centre for Social Research, to find out exactly what the polls are telling us about Johnson’s potential return and who could be Labour’s biggest threat in Downing Street.

Can Boris Johnson lead the Conservatives to electoral success?

“I would have thought the Labour party could not believe their luck if the Conservative party elected Boris Johnson,” Professor Curtice said.

“Johnson has never been that popular. He was very popular among Leave voters back in 2019 but deeply unpopular among Remain voters so he basically appealed to one half of the country but not the other. There is a bit of a myth about him being a gloriously popular politician but he never has been, certainly not since 2016.”

Polling from YouGov which tracked Johnson’s popularity throughout his premiership shows he was reaching new highs of unpopularity by the time he left office in August with 68% saying he was doing badly as prime minister.

Johnson’s landslide victory in the 2019 election saw him win big with Leave voters to command an 80 seat majority in the Commons but the country is in a very different position than it was then. Brexit has happened and the cost of living crisis and economic uncertainty dominate headlines daily.

Professor Curtice said the current economic climate is very different to that in 2019, adding that governments who preside over a fiscal crisis “struggle at the ballot box”. This is also the first time a governing party has changed its leader in the wake of such a crisis. “You can see there are quite a lot of obstacles and we can’t necessarily assume given the very different circumstances that Johnson will be able to pull off the same trick twice.”

Johnson is also currently being investigated for having potentially deliberately misled parliament in statements that he made in the House of Commons about alleged breaches of lockdown rules in Downing Street. This could constitute a contempt of parliament and potentially cause yet another downfall for him.

Who is Labour’s biggest threat?

The country is expected to find out who is Conservative leader and new prime minister a week today (28 October) but the result could arrive much sooner if one of the candidates has the backing of 100 MPs or more on Monday.

Whatever the results, one thing is clear – Labour are storming ahead in the polls. Latest polling from PeoplePolling shows Labour on 54% with the Conservatives on 14%, two percentage points in front of the Liberal Democrats. Is there anyone in the Conservatives that could steal some of Labour’s thunder? Professor Curtice believes Rishi Sunak could be their hardest opponent.

“Sunak is not the popular politician he once was but in some ways he shares many of the weaknesses of Sir Keir Starmer – not very good at articulating clear vision, certainly doesn’t excite people,” he said. “But because the two of them are in some respects so similar it could make him more difficult to contest.”

Sunak is also more popular among non-Tory voters than Johnson, according to Professor Curtice, so has more chances of appealing to those outside the party.

He may also be Johnson’s toughest competition to beat. At the time of writing (1pm on 21 October) Sunak was leading in the race for Number 10. The MP for Richmond had the backers of 49 MPs, followed by Johnson with 39 and Mordaunt with 17.

“There are still question marks about Rishi Sunak’s ability to unite the party,” Professor Curtice added. “And it is also clear that there are those in the Tory party who are in the ‘anyone but Sunak’ camp because they blame him for the high level of taxation and blame him for bringing down Johnson.

“A problem the Conservative party has is that there may not be anybody who can bring the party back together again.”

Will there be a general election?

A disunited governing party would create further disruption for the country but Professor Curtice said the chances of an early general election are slim.

“The risk is that in the wake of this contest the Conservative party is unable to unite around whoever wins and that we find after a while there is nobody in the House of Commons that is able to command the confidence and the majority of the House.

“This is remarkable given the governing party has a majority of nearly 80. This should not be a question we are asking ourselves but we are asking ourselves whether or not this party is at risk of imploding such that the Crown may have to come to the conclusion that it has to dissolve parliament because there is no stable government capable of being formed out of this parliament.”

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